The Economy
Moderate Growth in 2026
- The central scenario for 2026 consolidates around moderate growth, but below potential, with regional differences converging (GDP growth in the U.S. +1.8% and in the Eurozone +1.4%).
- The U.S. maintains a cycle sustained by investment linked to artificial intelligence (AI), although consumption and the labor market show signs of weakness.
- One of the main issues in the EU is Germany, whose growth has been stagnant over the past two years, but now seems close to adopting major investment decisions.
- Inflation in the U.S. remains moderate, but still not enough. This places the Fed in a dilemma between easing monetary policy or keeping interest rates unchanged on December 10. In Europe, the rate-cutting cycle has already ended.
- China continues to show a lack of significant traction despite increasing fiscal and monetary stimulus packages.
Markets
Tension Between AI Narrative and Valuations: Is There a Bubble?
- The artificial intelligence (AI) narrative continues to drive indexes, but elements of strength clash with signs of overvaluation.
- The dollar shows structural weakness: with EUR/USD at 1.16 at the end of November 2025, reflecting fiscal deterioration (debt) and institutional deterioration (Trump administration).
- Fixed income becomes a subject of debate due to uncertainty between economic strength and inflation, which suggests moderating duration by investing in medium-term maturities.
- Gold remains a strategic diversification asset, supported by initial purchases from some central banks, especially China and India.
Investment Policy
Quality Stocks: An Opportunity
- Geopolitical risks reaffirm themselves as key variables in 2026.
- We maintain an underweight position in U.S. equities to reduce the concentration risk in the “Magnificent 7,” given their current valuations which, while not indicative of a bubble, are clearly demanding.
- Europe gains weight as a safe haven, both due to valuations and lower sensitivity to U.S. monetary policy impacts.
- We continue to prioritize our well-known exposure to quality companies (quality stocks), with stable margins, predictable growth, and low or no leverage.
- In fixed income, we avoid long durations and favor intermediate positions (3Y / 5Y). This positioning provides flexibility to seize potential opportunities in long-term yields should they arise.
LEGAL CONSIDERATIONS
1) This information is intended for advertising and informational purposes only. It does not constitute and should not be considered investment advice or legal opinion, nor is it intended to replace the necessary advice in these matters or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy.
2) All opinions and estimates provided are based on sources considered reliable. However, EDM Gestión, SAU, SGIIC cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness and assumes no responsibility for any direct or indirect loss that may result from the use of the information provided in this document.
3) EDM Gestión, SAU, SGIIC warns that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
4) EDM Gestión, SAU SGIIC is a Spanish public limited company registered in the Special Register of Management Companies of Collective Investment Institutions of the CNMV under number 49 and in the Madrid Commercial Registry, volume 36,739, folio 52, sheet M-658.326, with tax ID: A-58.217.175. Its activities include, among others, the representation, management, and administration of Funds and Investment Companies domiciled and regulated in Spain, as well as discretionary portfolio management.
